The Terabase Metagenomics meeting was good fun, but I most valued the computational component (because that's what I do). Rachel Mackelprang and Rob Knight and I wrote down a list of the computational issues involved in a petabase metagenomics project, and that list will help direct my future research. I'll try to write up the list sooner rather than later, but in the meantime, I wanted to write down some general thoughts on the subject of processing large amounts of data for metagenomics.
In any petabase metagenomics sequencing project focused on probing the unknown, we are going to have to face two basic computational issues: assembly and sequence comparison. Both of these issues require an all-by-all analysis, or at least the approximation of one. That is, as our sampling grows, we're going to want to assemble contiguous DNA sequences from larger and larger pools of short sequences; this requires some form of comparison that will scale as the amount of genomic novelty increases. We're also going to want to take the products of sequencing and assembly (raw reads and contigs) and compare them or derivative products to all known genes. By and large, this problem boils down to systematic comparisons of points in a sparsely but maybe thoroughly occupied n-dimensional space -- an N-squared problem that has no exact parallelizable solution.
Currently, neither assembly nor gene comparison scales well. Metagenomic assembly is currently the most disastrous: existing short-read assemblers use De Bruijn graphs and require ginormous amounts of memory (half-terabyte amounts or more) to run. Gene comparison is largely done using custom tools (for e.g. rRNA comparison) or the more general BLAST and HMMER/profile tools; these tools scale reasonably well for comparisons, but for post-processing into high-quality phylogenies and gene families, there is no scalable solution that I know of.
I firmly believe that the intractable-looking problem of assembly is going to be among the first to fall. This is because, at least in theory, metagenomic assembly should be massively parallelizable: metagenomes contain many distinct genomes that don't connect to each other, so if you can filter or bin the raw sequences into assemblable subsets, then you will be able to run the individual assemblies on as many computers as you have original contigs. This is a logical and simple approach that simply awaits appropriate heuristic techniques for division of the reads -- and we'll figure that out sooner rather than later. Plus, people much smarter than me are actively working on better ways of parallelizing the basic De Bruijn graph approach, and that will inevitably bear fruit.
The marker-gene comparison problem may already be solved. For any given gene family (like 16s) you can already do linear-time comparisons with profile methods like HMMER. Using existing breakdowns of phase space as a scaffold for new marker data as it arrives should be possible. At least, I can think of several ways that it will work, and Rob Knight is quite optimistic. (This is his area of expertise, and since he's a Python programmer, I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt. ;)
The big problem facing in the future, I think, is the clustering and discovery of gene families. As we sequence deeper into the unknown, we're going to have to do ever larger, more systematic, and more sensitive comparisons of new data against all known genes, in all types of ways -- DNA and protein sequence, RNA secondary structure, and protein structure. The goal will be to elucidate gene families (which is an ill-defined concept), their phylogenetic structure, and as much as possible about their function, across all of the domains of life. This is hard because we are explicitly looking for trace connections -- distant homologies and similarities -- that we haven't seen yet. Unlike the marker-gene approach, we don't have good heuristics for reducing the problem to one of interpolation, and this means that the problem remains (at first glance) an O(N^2) problem. Even if you use a prefiltering approach (like BLAST or HMMER 3) you are still supra-linear, which is deadly when you're talking about billions or trillions of sequences.
Memory usage is particularly problematic for gene comparison, with most clustering techniques requiring scads of memory (N^2, in the extreme) for comparison problems. This may be something we can reduce with heuristic approaches, but biology has a way of messing with us so we can't rely on heuristics up front - especially in large discovery-based projects.
There's an additional complication, though: we really want to reduce the problem to one of online processing. As we gather petascale data, we don't want to do all-by-all comparisons of the new data against the old data; rather, we want to fit as much of the new data into an existing structure of classifications, and then sideline the remaining data for more complex exploration. This results in an O(N) classification for the "easy" or known stuff, while dealing with the hard stuff remains Bad (supra-linear, and perhaps exponential). For example, with respect to assembly, we expect to have assemblies of most of the more abundant soil genomes within the next 2-3 years; we should be able to pre-screen new data by seeing if it matches to an existing assembly, and if it does, simply count it (or discard it). Only the data that matches to no prior assembly would be kept. A similar approach can be used for 16s or marker-gene data. I can think of ways to approach it for protein-coding genes and non-coding RNA as well, but I'm very afraid of missing some or many of the unknown unknowns in our data sets by being too liberal with classification. On the flip side, being too conservative will inevitably lead to scaling problems, so there's no way to win.
As with all Big Data problems, the sheer scale of these issues causes all sorts of annoying data processing and storage problems. It's become a ruling principle of my tool development that algorithms must be constant memory: hence things like our k-mer filtering approach, which trades accuracy guarantees for pragmatic issues like the ability to run the software in the first place.
It's worth noting that Moore's Law will not save us. Neither memory nor CPU power is growing as fast as sequencing capacity -- some estimate the exponent on sequencing capacity as being > 5. (Thank goodness, disk space will probably keep up!) We're going to get a huge increase in the number of cores, but that doesn't really help with Big Data unless you have robust pleasantly parallel algorithms that don't require much memory -- which we don't, and in general probably won't, have.
So, my (our) outlook for the next few years will be: build tools that scale way better than our existing tools, in all directions (time, memory, parallelizability); yield guaranteed behavior with respect to memory consumption in particular; and are optimally sensitive and specific for the large class of unknowns (new proteins, ncRNA, and structures) that await us in the world of sequence.
Sounds like fun!
By the way, for those of you who like to think about problem equivalence, the protein comparison problem ultimately boils down to comparing protein structures. We, umm, can't solve that one, either...